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Home » News » Risk of COVID-19 Transmission under Different Scenarios
Science

Risk of COVID-19 Transmission under Different Scenarios

Daniel PetersonBy Daniel Peterson Science
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The researchers developed a model on how the COVID-19 transmission changes in different conditions and then organized an interactive cold line graph that shows the amount of infected with SARS-COV-2 and, therefore, obtains COVID-19. You can change 15 configurations to see how the risk of transmission of the infected person to the non -infected person changes in many different situations.

The model has limitations. You cannot change the viral load of the infected person or the variant of the virus or the susceptibility of the uninfected person. You cannot change the vaccination status of the infected or not infected person.

After playing a little with the tool, I have some tips to share.

Advice: Only changing a configuration is enough to start the new analysis and show the difference in risk transmission. This can be a bit confusing if there are few changes between the first configuration and the newly selected configuration. There is no need to press “go” or “start.”

A good example to see a big difference is to establish the activity in “cough” without changing any other configuration.

“Restore graphic” restores the configuration to the default value, does not start the transmission in the selected conditions.

Advice: Initially I missed that the color of the uninfected person changes as the risk of infection increases. So pay attention to both Purple roads flows and The color of the uninfected person When you change a configuration.

Advice: As you select a change in protection, the blue line repeats the barrier through the transmission roads provided by protection.

Advice: The little ‘I’ in a circle brings through a window that allows you to read how the information was determined, provides a 5 -star rating of the quality of the evidence, an indication of the confidence of the estimated values ​​of the experts and what estimates contribute.

Outstanding articles

Rutter H, Parker S, Stahl-Timmins W, Noakes C, Smyth A, Macbeth R and high high. Visualization SARS-COV-2 transmission routes and mitigations. BMJ 375 : E065312 (2021) DOI: 10.1136/BMJ-2021-065312 [This one has the online tool.]

Freeman al, parker s, Noakes Cet al. Obtaining experts on the relative importance of possible SARS-COV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations. Open BMJ 11:E050869 (2021). DOI: 10.1136/BMJOPEN-2021-050869 [This one has the data used to develop the model that drives the tool.]

A direct link to the online tool: https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-065312/infographic

Read more about COVID-19 by Nancy R. Gough

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