The conflict between Israel and Iran Tightened over the weekend, after Israel’s surprise attacks on Friday. Israel expanded its strikes to include oil refineries and government buildings, and today said that the Iran Elite force command center had reached, an affirmation that could not be verified immediately. Meanwhile, they will intensify their retaliation attacks, attacking the areas of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as well as the largest oil refinery in Israel. (AP and New York Times)
Our shot
On October 6, 2023, Iran had a reasonably safe and stable strategic position in the Middle East, mainly due to what seemed to be a strong and well distributed deterrence system. At that time, Tehran had nearby partners surrounding Israel in almost all its borders, especially Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon, whose rocket, missile and drones, as well as his abilities to fight the ground, made him a powerful threat. The Assad regime in Syria, and the presence of the Russian forces there, that Israel would have to exercise caution when using survival of the Syrian territory to launch air attacks against Iran. Meanwhile, militias aligned in Iran were very close to American forces based in Iraq, which means that the participation of the United States in any conflict could also have a cost. And the long -range attack capabilities of Iran were expanding and progressing quickly technologically.
Without a doubt, there were few doubts at that time, Iran’s conventional military capabilities were not rival for those of Israel, especially if the United States backed the letter. But the greatest threat facing the regime in Tehran was not Israel or even the conflict, but the economic impact of US sanctions and a crisis or political legitimacy. The latter was partly promoted by corruption and poor management that, combined with the year of punishment, caused lung economic difficulties for the Iranian people. But it was also traceable for a growing disconnection between the conservative the country’s conservative rulers and the aspirations of its increasingly young and reformist urban population.
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