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His guide about what Trump’s second term means for Washington, Business and the World
“I would like to thank Donald Trump without who would not have legs.” Mark Carney, on the 24th of the Prime Minister of Canada, was too discreet on Monday to give credit to the president of the United States for his parties returning to office. But it is the truth of the Lord. By covet the sovereignty of Canada, Trump turned the project sliding of the semi Trumpian conservative party in the defeat in the weeks space. It is not bad for the first 100 days of the president of the United States. I could do a similar favor for the head of the Australian Labor Party this weekend without threatening to annex the country.
But Carney deserves credit to nail his opponent Pierre Poilievre to Trump’s mast. Instead of El “Canada First” by Poilievre, Carney proclaimed “Canada Strong”. Hey, while Justin Trudeau was also distanced, his deeply unpopular predecessor as a liberal prime minister. There are lessons here for the Democrats. If Kamala Harris has thrown Joe Biden under the bus with the same office as Carney to Trudeau, he could have defeated Trump last November. Above all, Carney showed that non -populists can win in the right conditions in this case as Fail for the world’s main populist.
Complete dissemination: I have met Carney as the early 1990s. He thought that his skills as an economist and central banker were clear, Monday was the first time he presented himself to the elections. He turned 60 last month, two days after replacing Trudeau. It is difficult to exaggerate how unlikely a few months ago. Carney worked for Goldman Sachs in London and New York. Then he headed the Bank of Canada. After that he became governor of the Bank of England. Then he joined a global investment company. He promoted ESG in the two abbreviations that would normally displease him from the company company. If globalism had a name and a face, it would be Carney.
Only Trump could have turned the thesis mills into wings. In that sense, the 47th President of the United States plays involuntary ally of democracy everywhere, except at home. The medium voter of Cool Canada is an intensive course in the merits of rules -based internationalism. As the only person who has executed two Central Banks of the G7, Carney can claim to know how the global economy works. Canada, like the EU, Mexico and most other countries, has suddenly awakened with the dangers of a renegade America. If the president of the United States can threaten the sovereignty of his neighbor and loyal ally, what country is sure?
There are two broader conclusions of Trump. The first is that obement costs more. Trump not only lack of respect for flatterers, but also does everything possible to humiliate them. That also applies to foreign leaders. Trudeau went up to a plane to Palm Beach in November when Trump first threatened the tariffs to the neighbors of the United States. The leader of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, did not walk. Trump speaks or she with respect; He continued to make fun of Trudeau as “Governor of the State 51”. The leaders tempted to reduce the agurated parallel agreements with Trump should be careful. Your signature is not binding. Voters will not necessarily reward them for harassing him. The famous Canada Commonsensiced reminds us that some patriotism things, dignity can be valued more than short -term growth.
The second is that Trump is bad for Trumbans. Poilievre was sold as a softer version or Trump. Peter Dutton, leader of the Liberal Party (conservative) of Australia, has done it more blatantly. Both locked themselves in a cage of the creation of another person. When Trump goes to damage the economies of his nations, they could not easily repudiate it. Even low information voters know a flip-flopper when they see one.
Other right -wing leaders, in particular, Giorgia Meloni from Italy, resist a complete Trump hug. The Sir Keir Starmer of Great Britain should also pay attention. The more he can represent the populist reform of the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage as Trump’s puppet, the more difficult his implicit criticism or Trump is. Alternatively, Starmer could reach a rate agreement that flattered Trump but could alienate the friends of Great Britain. Guts would be needed, but not a level of ability not reluctant, so that Starmer paints both Brexit parties, including opposition conservatives, as puppets of a strong foreign man.
There is the self -diving core of Trumpism. Just as Trump is derogatory with allies, he does not have loyalty to friends. A large part of the Republicans of Congress supports it for fear, not devotion. Here again, Trump is providing the world for a shock course. The best way to redeem the vote of “America [or Canada, Brazil, Britain, Italy, Mexico etc] First ”is to play well with ethers. Power and prosperity are multiplied by friends.
edward.luce@ft.com
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