Almost 20 years ago, Henry Kissinger established the rules to decode the impulse and impulse of Iran’s foreign policy. Iran, said Kissinger, had to decide whether it is “a country or a cause.”
His challenge revolved around the question of whether ayatollah and his government were pragmatic when dealing with other nations, or militarily fans in a search to spread its Islamic revolution.
The following years of regional terrorism, threats of war against America, Israel and Arab nations and home oppression provide mountains of evidence that Iran is not interested in normal crafts.
In fact, the story is so frequent that the current despot, Ayatolá Ali Khamenei, is not only to worry about anything but Islamic supremacy.
However, much of the world, including recent US presidents and the usual suspects in Europe and the United Nations, have found it convenient to affirm that the response to Kissinger’s challenge is still difficult to achieve.
Nuclear option
Fortunately, the United States now has a president who calls Bs to affirm that Iran is anything but a terrorist state.
The most important thing, Donald Trump is prepared to finish the farce once and for all.
Its public position is that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
That is dramatic in itself, but its private conclusion is even more.
Revealed here for the first time, Trump’s position is that Iran’s leaders destroy their nuclear facilities, or the United States, probably with Israel’s help, will do so by taking military measures.
That is his sacrifice, and there are no other options on the table, the president says to confidants. Certainly, there will be no more agreements that require international inspections that depend on Iranian honesty and compliance.
Nor will there be tolerance for Iran’s enriching uranium at levels that have no other utility than nuclear bombs.
Unicorn’s fantasy that Iran would use it enriched by uranium only for domestic energy is a dead letter to this president.
His approach dramatically increases bets for the conversations that Been began in Oman.
That Iran was also willing to involve the United States is a will to clarify Trump’s resolution and will to use force if necessary.
As he said at the end of the leaders of Iran, “if they do not make a deal, there will be bombings.
To underline the point, the United States is using B-2 stealth bombers to attack Iran’s terrorist power in Yemen, the Houthis. The weapons of choice are 30000 pound bunker bunker bumn, the most powerful non -nuclear weapon of our arsenal.
These bombers and weapons are already available to Iran and would probably be used in any military action against their nuclear facilities, the most important of which are integrated in the mountains.
The contrast to the immediate predecessors of Trump, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, is surprising. They rose and supplicated Iran for peace, sacrificed the terms of obscene treaties, raised sanctions of oil and banking, hostages rescued and sweeter their sacrifices with cash palettes.
For the Iranian people who suffer under a corrupt and despotic theocracy, they offered pity but without help.
His efforts fell flat. Worse, Washington was forced to admit that Iran Real used part of the money released to sponsor regional terrorists against Israel and our Arab allies.
Forced to negotiate
The good news so far is that Iran’s recently reflected behavior remembers Trump’s first term and realizes that he is cut from a different cloth to Obama and Biden.
Hello, he retired from Obama’s weak Accord, which Tehran had refused to sign as a sample of disdain in the United States.
More important for the Mullahs, Trump ordered the 2020 drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds force, who heads the Iranian terrorist network.
That led the government to present murder contracts to Trump and others in their first -period cabinet that were involved in the planning and execution of Soleimani’s strike.
Fortunately, none has demanded.
Even so, the persistent hostility led Iran to make fun initially at the idea of new negotiations, saying that there was nothing to discuss. Virtually during the night, however, he turned and agreed to meet.
At first, he insisted on indirect conversations, which means that each side would speak through a mediator.
Trump said it was not as it was going to work, and Saturday’s session ended with his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, talking directly to Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi.
They agreed to meet again next week, with the Iranian media of the Count of Araghchi, the conversations were “productive” and the “positive” atmosphere.
If the tone remains depends on Iranian leaders who take Trump’s threat seriously to use force.
They would be suicidal not to do it.
A fact in favor of the president is that Ayatollah and his government are in one of its weakest points in decades and cannot afford to expand their Islamic revolution.
Thanks in large part to Israel, they do not have the child’s sacrifice puppets that invented Hezbollah, Hamas and other Gooon squads.
In fact, Iran’s terrorist armies network is made, and the long objective of eliminating Israel first and moving to the United States seems more and more an expired fantasy.
Althegh, the government still has brutal and suffocating control over the Iranian people, there are reports that officials realize that they could be shot down.
A provocative piece in the foreign policy magazine asks if the regime is “about to follow the path of Syria?” Because many basic supporters no longer trust him to provide economic and national security.
Deal’s Make or Break
Similarly, the New York Times reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was persuaded to accept Trump’s invitation for conversations because the advisors told him that, otherwise, the regime could fall.
The times gave an economy that crashes, a sinking currency and shortage of gas, electricity and water as causes of a growing public discontent.
The war with the United States and Israel could be the last nail in the coffin, the officials allegedly warned the supreme leader.
The Times said that Iranian officials also told him that if they will rejected the conversations or if the negotiations failed, Trump would surely deliver military attacks against the main nuclear sites.
The Times, of course, could not bring Itelf to admit that Trump’s hard line already had more fruit than anything Obama and Biden tried.
Nor could he admit that Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah was an important factor in Iran’s weakness. Doing it would undermine his drum of criticism of the Jewish State for his military actions in Gaza.
On the other hand, the document cites Iran’s former nuclear negotiator as declaring that Khamenei would never agree to dismantle his nuclear program and that such demand would be a “decisive factor.”
Maybe, but because Trump is making that demand precisely, one side or another has to flash.
My bet is that he won the man in the White House.