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They say with Donald Trump that the accusation is the confession. Having warned to the 2024 campaign that Joe Biden, then Kamala Harris, would trigger the “World War Tres”, Trump now offers a dangerous evidence of that proposition. In his statement on Saturday night, Trump delivered his military attacks about Iran a success. The bunker destruction bombs of the United States had obliterated the nuclear capacity of Iran, he said. It could take time to discover if both Iran and Israel, the main actors in a program that Trump did not write, but in what he is now assuming a leading role, will share the evaluation of the president of the United States. But Trump hopes that his incredible show of power will boost the curtain in the war. That is not your decision to make.
Whatever happens later, it is worth remembering how Trump came here. Ten days ago, Benjamin Netanyahu torpedoed Trump’s nuclear negotiations with Iran with a series or devastating missile attacks. Israel’s prime minister said Iran was putting together its nuclear program and represented an existential threat. Most others, including the American intelligence community, do not share the diagnosis of Netanyahu. Having his desired treatment drained by Israel’s movement, Trump quickly associated with him. He demanded the unconditional surrender of Iran and said he could eliminate the supreme leader of the regime, Ali Khamenei, at any time. Iran did not submit to Trump’s demand. His de facto war statement on Saturday night was the result.
It is also worth emphasizing that no one, including Trump, knows what will happen later. It is easy to start a war, especially if you send the most powerful army on Earth. But wars only end when one side gives up. That ancient warning about the fog of the war is particularly relevant to the Middle East, in which there is or more than two parties at war. The enemy of your enemy can also be your enemy. After being conferences for a younger Netanyahu, Bill Clinton told an assistant: “Who is the fucking superpower here?” The address televised by Trump’s letter after the strikes was destined to show his command of the situation. Actually, Netanyahu has been dictating events. But just as a cannot predict how I will go.
Netanyahu’s interests are not the same as Trump. The Israel leader has made clear the collapse of the Hey Hens regime in Iran. Trump wants Iran to surrender. The first would be precipitated by a strong Iranian response that left Trump no choice but to increase, a perspective that threatened in his direction. The second would involve an Iranian retaliation token that allowed Trump to declare the mission fulfilled. How this develops and who is diagnosed if the actions are tokens or lethal, is largely out of Trump’s hands. This leaves it as the most powerful military actor in the Middle East, but potentially a hollow. Power is about the ability to shape events. Trump is largely his prisoner.
Whatever happens, Trump’s bombing or Iran has defined his presidency at home, as well as abroad. This is Trump’s war now. The submission of Iran reverberar would for its advantage in many ways; A full rule war could sink its presidency. Among the ironies, Trump’s strikes in Iran are being encouraged by many of the “winners” who had been so closely warning of Trump’s autocratic impulses. They are prepared to risk the opportunity to enlarge power that war sacrifices Trump. Another iony is that Trump’s Maga allies, such as Steve Bannon, are among the greatest skeptics of this most and potentially more dramatic chapter in “wars forever” that Trump has promised to finish.
Only a fool would take Trump in his word, who breaks serially. But it is sure to say that it is unlikely that his ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize to bear fruit. Without consulting Congress, and in a probable contravention of international law, Trump has a fateful bet. Whether this fact has completely digested or not, now you are committed to see this until the end. Iran and Israel will have at least so great that Trump deciding when and how that happens.
edward.luce@ft.com
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