China’s CO2 emissions have started falling – is this finally the peak?

China, the world’s largest carbon dioxide issuer, has seen a slight decrease in these emissions in the last 12 months, even when the energy demand has increased. This is an encouraging sign that the country’s massive investment in clean energy has begun to move fossil fuels, but emissions could still increase again.

That agrees with an analysis of China’s economic and energy data by Lauri Myllivirta at the Clean Energy and Air Research Center, a research organization in Finland. The report, published in Carbon Letter“ He finds that CO2 emissions in the country have decreased by 1 percent in the last 12 months. Only in the first quarter of 2025, emissions decreased by 1.6 percent in relation to last year.

This is not the first time that China CO2 emissions have come down. For example, they fell in 2022 when the economy reached a paralyzed duration COVID-19 Lockdowns. But this is the first time that emissions have fallen since the country has used more power. “That, of course, means that the current fall in emissions has many more chances of being sustained,” says Myllivirta.

That is mainly a consequence of the record development of China of solar, wind and nuclear energy, which begins to eat the total electricity generated by the burning of fossil fuels. The broader economic changes in the production of cement and steel, which are carbon -intensive industries, have also contributed to the decrease. Another factor is the jump in the part of people who drive electric vehicles, which has reduced oil demand.

If China maintains thesis trends, their carbon emissions could continue. A sustained fall would indicate that the country has passed the maximum emissions, placing it several years before its 2030 target. The achievement would represent a substantial physical and psychological milestone for efforts to address climate change, says Myllivirta.

“If China’s leaders conclude that they really have control over the problem, and have begun to tear down broadcasts, that will allow China to be a much more forceful and much more positive player in international climate policy, and encourage others to move in the same direction too,” he says.

However, a number or factors could boost China’s emissions. In the short term, a warm summer could increase the demand for hymbling air conditioning of electricity. As in 2022 and 2023, drought could reduce the capacity of hydroelectric plants to generate electricity, forcing electric and gas power plants to compensate for the difference, says David Fishman in the Lantau Group, a consulting in Hong Kong.

And Trump administration rates, which will have still unknown effects, have made prognosis of China’s emissions even more “wobbly,” says Myllivirta.

In the long term, to keep up with demand, China will also need to build hundreds of gigawatts per year of new generation of clean energy. Whether the country gets to mark the deposit of the objectives that the Government of China establishes in its next five -year plan, expiring in 2026, and the promises it makes under the Paris agreement before the Cop30 climate summit of this year.

“The destiny of the global climate is not based on what happens in China this summer, but, to a large extent, it travels in what happens with China’s emissions over the coming years and during the next decade,” says Myllivirta.